Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 20.641038 22.515232 24.596689 27.103261 30.072499 33.520644 37.894069
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 17.946280 20.420762 23.383816 27.279558 32.409184 39.164494 49.189577
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.111407 18.899187 22.428953 27.401995 34.563393 45.159539 63.689143
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.637228 17.551922 21.397801 27.114296 35.975101 50.519560 80.517408
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.603995 16.613357 20.724826 27.129772 37.755248 57.091224 105.138181
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.700684 15.730171 19.983501 26.865585 38.957112 63.118357 135.993392
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.951389 14.975974 19.320649 26.583969 40.018353 69.372675 179.097997
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.330538 14.342478 18.756545 26.355151 41.096763 76.284430 245.351920
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.811948 13.810727 18.285838 26.200583 42.270967 84.236317 359.990101
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.267667 13.199263 17.630525 25.621614 42.403154 89.420801 509.704569
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.111379 13.153551 17.864110 26.682100 46.484792 111.041252 1799.773784
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.725488 12.729514 17.439914 26.434971 47.399149 122.284355 11062.656093
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.417063 12.411995 17.176095 26.486269 49.167842 140.295109 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.155608 12.152104 16.988461 26.667108 51.382997 165.243681 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.906316 11.896236 16.786249 26.789924 53.512478 195.799831 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.617428 11.560948 16.419679 26.515082 54.379436 220.925254 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.392919 11.317913 16.198940 26.530930 56.216167 263.694644 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.147507 11.028557 15.874986 26.276871 57.094119 303.092242 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.916953 10.753153 15.559025 26.005715 57.857721 349.522736 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.708339 10.504999 15.278029 25.785275 58.770372 411.469868 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.522042 10.286120 15.038217 25.636320 59.942931 501.087498 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.296486 9.992930 14.644024 25.078066 59.333065 543.178707 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.272245 10.037023 14.886475 26.100405 65.782802 1138.471413 NaN